Ph.D. Olgerta IDRIZI, Mediterranean University of Albania
Thursday, January 12 th 2023 at 12:00 A.M.
DISIM Seminar Room
Abstract: Allocation of benefits for the third age from social security contributions is a problem of any society at any time. Definition of their level significantly affects some factors, such as economic, social and demographic structure of the population, and so on. In the face of overall challenges, our aim is to provide a systematic study on the use of techniques and methods of actuarial forecasts, with particular focus on mortality rate changes, using stochastic data processing models.
We will focuses on the analysis of pension funds, considering the social security system within the social, demographic and economic changes. Through actuarial and financial data, such as life tables etc., used in calculating the pension fund, we will build a variable that is known as the “Mortality Rate”.
This analysis aims to predict Lee Carter mortality rates with data from relevant Institutions. Subsequently, according to some actuarial methods applied in the R program, the impact of the mortality rate in the average pension fund foreseen by demographic and data requirements and the interpretation of these variables taken into consideration, is determined, to take decisions later.
This study determines the effect of the mortality rate in pension funds as a whole and in particular at retirement age. The results achieved on the mortality rate predictions put into question whether the social security
framework is actually the right structure to secure the benefits of social protection in the future of the Millennial generation. The need for reforming the current pension system comes as a necessity to find solutions to many problems that this system has, as well as to create the necessary instruments and structures that can provide enjoyable pensions to all people who pay contributions from their salary.
Actuarial models through the analysis of the present and the past of the situation, project the financial future of the pension scheme. Given that they are based on many demographic and economic assumptions, it is necessary to periodically review them as well as to continuously monitor the parameters of the pension scheme.
Short Bio
Education: Graduated on 2009 from Faculty of Economics, University of Tirana on Business Informatic. After that has started the Master on Business Administration at FE, UT. On 2019 has finished the PhD studies, in the field of Statistics on Faculty of Economics, University of Tirana with the thesis “The forecast of mortality rate on Albania. How this can affect pension funds”.
Experience: Olgerta Idrizi has 13 years of research experience in Statistics and Artificial Intelligence. In her current position she is the Head of Business Informatic Department, Vice Dean of the Faculty of Informatics, Lecturer and Researcher at the Department of Business Informatics, Faculty of Informatics, Mediterranean University of Albania (2016-current). She has been invited lecturer at the Faculty of Economics (2009-2020), Faculty of Natural Science (2022) and in many others private Universities.
Research interests: Research activity of Olgerta Idrizi is focused on: Statistics, Data Science, Machine Learning, Artificial Intelligence, Forecast of mortality rate etc.